Quote:
Originally Posted by Bossxr8
CDC now claiming death rate is much lower than earlier predictions. So much for all the fools who sprouted the 20 times worse than the flu crap. Mindless sheep.
In addition to providing various rates of hospitalizations and infections, the CDC gave new estimates of the total fatality rate of the virus, ranging from about 0.1% (its least deadly scenario) to 0.8% (its deadliest scenario). The agency also cited a “best estimate” of 0.26%.
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There are an awful lot of assumptions in that data set with the major one being their estimate of identified v unidentified cases.
I should note that some US researchers are suggesting that only 1 in 12 Coronavirus cases is actually identified but even if this were true (and the Influenza case numbers were 100% accurate) that still makes the mortality rate higher for COVID19.
The COVID19 case mortality rate is currently much higher than Influenza - globally it is about 6.22% whereas Influenza is globally <1% and 0.1% in most developed countries even though there are huge variables in just how many cases go unreported for both.
Let's narrow that down. Influenza currently infects about 8% of the population in developed countries each year despite ~80% efficacious vaccines being available but
reported cases are not a total of of all cases and the (US) mortality rate of 0.1% is based on the reported numbers and not the total number.
Using Australia as an example we reported 330k Influenza cases in 2019 for 1,255 deaths so that's a CMR of 0.38% but based on total case estimates (~2M) that drops back to 0.062%.
You could safely argue, using the USA as an example that the number of unreported (or unidentified) cases are similar for both given the other similarities they share. Thus if there are only 6 unreported flu cases for every reported one (based on Australia) and if COVID19 is similar then the real figure would give the USA a CMR of assuming all the unidentified cases survive) that is still close to 1%. Even if it was 12x as suggested above then the CMR is still 5x that of Influenza.