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Old 12-06-2023, 04:55 PM   #2694
anobserver
Oppressive patriarch
 
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 694
Default Re: Australia housing bubble

It is harder for each generation. Adult life is delayed, family formation is pushed back, and those that do get on the property bandwagon are more heavily indebted for longer (into their 50s and beyond) than their grandparents, generating ever more billions in fees and revenue for the banking system. It’s an everything bubble: Housing is just the most obvious indicator.

But then, the younger generations are always an easy mark to criticise: travel, phones and Bernard Salt’s avo on toast comments come to mind. So why do I say its getting harder?

Labour market
- loss of trade training opportunities (CUBBIES not withstanding)
- move to a service economy
- increasing casualization and loss of manufacturing jobs
- more contract and temp jobs

Early adult Debt load
- useless degree almost a pre req
- five figure HECS debts
- loss of the cheap car market with increasing safety features and decreasing user serviceabiliy
- What young white collar earner can afford a used ranger or hilux?

Ongoing immigration
- Each year, Government allows another few hundred thousand people in, some via immigration, some via student visas that stay on after graduation and gain permanent residency. This subsidises housing demand, and prices rise. Bankers lend out ever bigger sums and the circus goes on.

- This constant demand for ever more housing has increased our population by 10 million or so since 1995, keeps builders and unions happy, and makes some well connected very rich indeed. Existing homeowners see their valuations (and their rates) increase year by year, so provided they're in front on the mortgage (or have none at all), they're mostly happy.

Cumulative inflation
- if our money wasn't constantly being devalued, we wouldn't see people speculating in assets, trying to get ahead. People speculate in investment housing because its been pretty much a sure thing, since 2001 and capital gains tax changes.

- People speculate because our money is being devalued, and we're always told that a little inflation is a good thing. Except CPI constantly undercuts the true rate of inflation, and understates how much purchasing power is lost each year. Inflation is cumulative. And those few million underemployed in the casual labour market (aka Roy Morgan stats) won’t appreciate their costs going up in double digits each and every year.

- An economy with a sound currency should be producing gentle deflation, which means gradually increasing purchasing power. This means that saving is worthwhile, which we simply can’t have. Plus, the money supply is not easily expanded, as is needed in times of war, and it looks like we may be at that time again.

Constantly in debt throughout adulthood, with less opportunity, our money losing value, and working to pay interest to faceless bankers sounds like slavery to me. Is this what we want for our next generations?
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Lamenting lost Australian manufacturing.

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