[Polyal]

Originally Posted by simon varley

You can't ignore the economics of the situation. There are two ways of saying oil is going to 'run out'. First there is the literal 'we have used up every single drop in the ground'. Second, and more reasonable, is 'we have extracted every drop that is commercially viable'

That second statement is a moving target. As the price per barrel increases the cost equation changes. There is a price point where shale extraction, for example, becomes economically viable and we have seen that. We have also seen shale oil production slow and stop when the price plummets.

My thoughts are that the demise of ICE will come in two ways - the cost of petrol will inevitably rise to the point that nobody can afford to run a car. this is likely many, man years away but we've seen how tough it can get even at $1.50 per litre. Imagine trying to run a V8 daily at $2.50 or @5.00

The second way and imo the more likely and faster way, is that governments will legislate. not necessarily in the way Europe are trying but at a more local level. We already have congestion charges for many cities and many also have low emission zones too. My belief is that very soon those low emissions zones will extend to more cities and will enforce zero emission cars only. Once we have a critical mass of EV cars in cities, the downstream impacts will be reduced retail prices, expansion of the charger network, and a migration of the EVs out of the cities to the commuter belt and then onwards.

I also believe this is how the autonomous car fleet will grow. Once the local government agencies define CBDs as EV vehicle only it is not much of a stretch to imagine them becoming autonomous vehicle only, and then the network of highways joining them up becoming autonomous only.

interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

I think its a good thing, do it were practical and the tech is going to get much better once acceptance and volume come on board.