Twilight for the traditional ICE automobile

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by simon varley

even if this is true - does it really make sense to combust it? it's still a finite resource and is better used imo to make lubricants and even plastics, than just burn it and chuck it up the chimney or down the tailpipe.

I don't disagree Simon, but statements saying it will run out by ... I have a problem with.
we most likely will start running out of places to put our rubbish before we run out of oil.

[simon varley]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

I don't disagree Simon, but statements saying it will run out by ... I have a problem with.
we most likely will start running out of places to put our rubbish before we run out of oil.

You can't ignore the economics of the situation. There are two ways of saying oil is going to 'run out'. First there is the literal 'we have used up every single drop in the ground'. Second, and more reasonable, is 'we have extracted every drop that is commercially viable'

That second statement is a moving target. As the price per barrel increases the cost equation changes. There is a price point where shale extraction, for example, becomes economically viable and we have seen that. We have also seen shale oil production slow and stop when the price plummets.

My thoughts are that the demise of ICE will come in two ways - the cost of petrol will inevitably rise to the point that nobody can afford to run a car. this is likely many, man years away but we've seen how tough it can get even at $1.50 per litre. Imagine trying to run a V8 daily at $2.50 or @5.00

The second way and imo the more likely and faster way, is that governments will legislate. not necessarily in the way Europe are trying but at a more local level. We already have congestion charges for many cities and many also have low emission zones too. My belief is that very soon those low emissions zones will extend to more cities and will enforce zero emission cars only. Once we have a critical mass of EV cars in cities, the downstream impacts will be reduced retail prices, expansion of the charger network, and a migration of the EVs out of the cities to the commuter belt and then onwards.

I also believe this is how the autonomous car fleet will grow. Once the local government agencies define CBDs as EV vehicle only it is not much of a stretch to imagine them becoming autonomous vehicle only, and then the network of highways joining them up becoming autonomous only.

interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by simon varley

You can't ignore the economics of the situation. There are two ways of saying oil is going to 'run out'. First there is the literal 'we have used up every single drop in the ground'. Second, and more reasonable, is 'we have extracted every drop that is commercially viable'

That second statement is a moving target. As the price per barrel increases the cost equation changes. There is a price point where shale extraction, for example, becomes economically viable and we have seen that. We have also seen shale oil production slow and stop when the price plummets.

My thoughts are that the demise of ICE will come in two ways - the cost of petrol will inevitably rise to the point that nobody can afford to run a car. this is likely many, man years away but we've seen how tough it can get even at $1.50 per litre. Imagine trying to run a V8 daily at $2.50 or @5.00

The second way and imo the more likely and faster way, is that governments will legislate. not necessarily in the way Europe are trying but at a more local level. We already have congestion charges for many cities and many also have low emission zones too. My belief is that very soon those low emissions zones will extend to more cities and will enforce zero emission cars only. Once we have a critical mass of EV cars in cities, the downstream impacts will be reduced retail prices, expansion of the charger network, and a migration of the EVs out of the cities to the commuter belt and then onwards.

I also believe this is how the autonomous car fleet will grow. Once the local government agencies define CBDs as EV vehicle only it is not much of a stretch to imagine them becoming autonomous vehicle only, and then the network of highways joining them up becoming autonomous only.

interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

I think its a good thing, do it were practical and the tech is going to get much better once acceptance and volume come on board.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by simon varley

You can't ignore the economics of the situation. There are two ways of saying oil is going to 'run out'. First there is the literal 'we have used up every single drop in the ground'. Second, and more reasonable, is 'we have extracted every drop that is commercially viable'

That second statement is a moving target. As the price per barrel increases the cost equation changes. There is a price point where shale extraction, for example, becomes economically viable and we have seen that. We have also seen shale oil production slow and stop when the price plummets.

My thoughts are that the demise of ICE will come in two ways - the cost of petrol will inevitably rise to the point that nobody can afford to run a car. this is likely many, man years away but we've seen how tough it can get even at $1.50 per litre. Imagine trying to run a V8 daily at $2.50 or @5.00

The second way and imo the more likely and faster way, is that governments will legislate. not necessarily in the way Europe are trying but at a more local level. We already have congestion charges for many cities and many also have low emission zones too. My belief is that very soon those low emissions zones will extend to more cities and will enforce zero emission cars only. Once we have a critical mass of EV cars in cities, the downstream impacts will be reduced retail prices, expansion of the charger network, and a migration of the EVs out of the cities to the commuter belt and then onwards.

I also believe this is how the autonomous car fleet will grow. Once the local government agencies define CBDs as EV vehicle only it is not much of a stretch to imagine them becoming autonomous vehicle only, and then the network of highways joining them up becoming autonomous only.

interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

Its actually the economics/practicality perspective I'm looking at.
One of the largest supplies of oil used to come from Venezuela but due to Sanctions it not getting exported now.

from the worldometers site previously posted they have 1374 years of oil in reserve.

it costs nothing to fill your car up there but people cant afford their groceries, google what a big mac costs there..

I can assure you if another source runs out they will lift these sanctions

its always about the $$$

whilst the rich cities are buying EVs the poor ones are still filled with 2 strokes and old busses.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Its actually the economics/practicality perspective I'm looking at.
One of the largest supplies of oil used to come from Venezuela but due to Sanctions it not getting exported now.

from the worldometers site previously posted they have 1374 years of oil in reserve.

it costs nothing to fill your car up there but people cant afford their groceries, google what a big mac costs there..

I can assure you if another source runs out they will lift these sanctions

its always about the $$$

whilst the rich cities are buying EVs the poor ones are still filled with 2 strokes and old busses.

Same can be said for everything, its just the way of the world but good we are still progressing for the better.

Still love my ICE, but unfortunately people like us will also become the exception as cars literally become just transport, the passion will be hard to maintain in 30-50 years.

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Its actually the economics/practicality perspective I'm looking at.
One of the largest supplies of oil used to come from Venezuela but due to Sanctions it not getting exported now.

from the worldometers site previously posted they have 1374 years of oil in reserve.

it costs nothing to fill your car up there but people cant afford their groceries, google what a big mac costs there..

I can assure you if another source runs out they will lift these sanctions

its always about the $$$

whilst the rich cities are buying EVs the poor ones are still filled with 2 strokes and old busses.

In exactly the same way when cars were first produced the poor couldn't afford them and continued to ride horses.
The demise and replacement of the ICE is inevitable and is happening now. I don't know what the tipping point is for the sceptics but industry, banks, car makers and governments are making the change already.
Grab onto random and tenuous reasons to deny that change is already happening or move with the times.
It's a bit like the Mabo native title deniers and haters who said we'd all lose our houses or backyards.
I'll say it again: people are terrified of change and become irrational with their fears and claims about it

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by xxx000

In exactly the same way when cars were first produced the poor couldn't afford them and continued to ride horses.
The demise and replacement of the ICE is inevitable and is happening now. I don't know what the tipping point is for the sceptics but industry, banks, car makers and governments are making the change already.
Grab onto random and tenuous reasons to deny that change is already happening or move with the times.
It's a bit like the Mabo native title deniers and haters who said we'd all lose our houses or backyards.
I'll say it again: people are terrified of change and become irrational with their fears and claims about it

never made any denial claims, go back and read my posts more carefully

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

never made any denial claims, go back and read my posts more carefully

a portion of my post was referring to your comments but the remainder was about other posts generally

[whynot]

Originally Posted by simon varley

You can't ignore the economics of the situation ... interesting times whatever your feelings about ICE vs EV

Yeah, I agree with your post.

Over time, the invisible hand of Adam Smith will win. If people want guilt free transportation (and, really, that is the subtle sales pitch behind EV), then manufacturers will produce EV. Once that decision is made, then customers will chase specifications like range, acceleration, safety, automation, etc. Nor do I see a great leap forward, just evolution that comes in fits and starts. But, cumulatively, over the decades, adds up to impressive hardware.

For awhile there, I was worried that the BMW i3 was the template for driving in the future. What is nice about vehicles like the Ford Mach-E is that EV doesn't have to be a Nanny-mobile.

One of my favourite memories of my old Outlander PHEV was climbing up a dirt track in the country, with the windows down, in near silence. Sure, a throbbing and burbling V8 sounds horny, but, not having it is not the end of a great driving experience.

What I do worry about is the 'cost is not a problem' aspect pushed by some EV advocates. Sure, at present, if you have a $100K to drop on a vehicle there are some nice EV options. But a fair slab of the population drive around in the third/fourth hand $5K workhorse.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by whynot

What I do worry about is the 'cost is not a problem' aspect pushed by some EV advocates. Sure, at present, if you have a $100K to drop on a vehicle there are some nice EV options. But a fair slab of the population drive around in the third/fourth hand $5K workhorse.

Yes there are people on this forum that do rely on the 2nd hand market.
Life will get tough when you fork out $5k for a 2nd hand EV with stuffed batteries.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Yes there are people on this forum that do rely on the 2nd hand market.
Life will get tough when you fork out $5k for a 2nd hand EV with stuffed batteries.

There's going to be a serious problem with 'E waste' like batteries once EVs become mainstream.

I'll be long dead and buried

Imagine automotive workshops, you won't need nearly as many as the only components you'll be doing are steering, suspension and batteries.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Imagine automotive workshops, you won't need nearly as many as the only components you'll be doing are steering, suspension and batteries.

And swap out sweaty overalls for hoodies as standard workwear for the pimply faced apprentice working on the vehicle's AI.

Fair bet that battery cells for a Ford will be incompatible with Holden Toyota/Nissan/Tesla, so you will need a selection of them lying around as well.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by whynot

And swap out sweaty overalls for hoodies as standard workwear for the pimply faced apprentice working on the vehicle's AI.

Fair bet that battery cells for a Ford will be incompatible with Holden Toyota/Nissan/Tesla, so you will need a selection of them lying around as well.

There's a couple different connectors for charging already, unless SAE or the European Union sits down on this for a standard, they'll all do proprietary electrical interfaces and electrical systems.



Looks like the car has the charging circuitry which makes sense.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by whynot

Fair bet that battery cells for a Ford will be incompatible with Holden Toyota/Nissan/Tesla, so you will need a selection of them lying around as well.

Actually, batteries are made by third parties rather than the manufacturer themselves.

Most use the 18650 battery though chemistry is a little different. Typically, you have Tesla using different chemistry but all the others use similar/same chemistry so Toyota/Nissan/BMW/Ford, etc are all interchangeable. You could even run the different chemistry cells but you'd have to have the software ready to handle it (bit like when we changed from NiCd to NiMH for domestic batteries; you have to use the correct charger for the battery).

Tesla are the ones driving development of better battery tech and have moved to the 2170 battery.