Thread: Covid 19 -
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Old 17-09-2020, 03:50 PM   #6492
russellw
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Default Re: Covid 19 -

While the pandemic might be getting better in some places, it would be fair to say that globally it isn't based on the growth rate of case numbers.



A closer look over the last 30 days at the Continents shows that both Asia and Europe have been climbing; Africa has been reasonable steady while the two Americas have been trending downward.



This is clearer to see in the (3rd order) polynomial trend graph over the same 30 day period:



The long term (since May 1st) shows a slightly different 5th order trend although only for North America as far as directionality.



To drill down on where the worsening trends are, here are some of the Asian and European trends over the last 30 days:

The first (and highest number) Asian target group shows three countries - Iraq, Pakistan and Bangladesh that are trending upwards although the latter only very slightly. Saudi Arabia has been steadily heading down and the Philippines being a bit inconsistent from a trend perspective.



The next group of nine countries has one (Israel) that has been growing rapidly; five (Indonesia, Iran, Nepal, Oman & Turkey) that have been growing steadily; two (Kazakhstan & Oman) that have been fairly steady and only Japan has been declining in case numbers.



The next group of eight countries has four (Armenia, Bahrain, Kuwait & Kyrgyzstan) that have been growing steadily; two (Azerbaijan & Singapore) that have been in steady decline and two (UAE & Uzbekistan) that have been a bit inconsistent but are currently declining in case numbers.



This is reinforced by the number of days since peak case numbers were reached:



Now for Europe where we have 4 groups separated by case number range.

The first group of three countries all have been on the increase with Spain having the fastest rate of climb and the UK the lowest with France in between.



The next group of three have two (Italy and Romania) on the rise quite steeply while Italy is finally in decline after a long period of growth.



The next group of three have two (Hungary and Austria that have just started to turn the corner downward while Portugal is in decline.



This last group contains eight countries with five (Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Norway and Serbia) trending upward and three (Albania, Bosnia & Denmark) trending downward.

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