[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by au2000

Victoria still cannot promise no power shortages this summer already

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/v...12-p51wzn.html

Government has to get these issues sorted before everyone can seriously consider regular use of electric vehicles.

Classic case of 'don't believe everything you read. There's some factual error sin that article. For a start, the unit that is out of service has a nominal output of 560MW not 550MW. Not a big difference in numbers but could be significant depending on scenarios that play out over summer.

Also, it is not normally the one day of hot weather that causes strain to the grid. It is the two, three or more consecutive days over 40°C that starts to drain the generating capacity. Whilst it is possible, I don't think it is likely we'll experience that in early December.

Another thing that doesn't read right to me is the statement that the generation struggled to meet demand last summer because of planned outages. I know that in the coal fired space at least, we never plan for an outage during the peak (summer and winter) periods. All outages are planned over the shoulder periods. Why would anyone plan to have a unit off at a time when you make the most income? (Unless you were trying to manipulate the market, but a stunt like that would be too obvious).

And the statement about transitioning to renewables to overcome this situation is just political talk. There's no point in having renewables available if they can't operate because there's no wind, or the sun is not shining or....

My prediction is that the outage will have little to no impact over the summer period.