Covid 19 -

[russellw]

223 new cases for Australia and 1 death so CMR drops to 1.019% and active cases rise to 3,502. NSW recorded 20 and the balance were in Victoria except for 1 in Tasmania.

1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.416% and active cases rise to 26.

The UK recorded 580 new cases and 12 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.341%.

Just over 65k new cases in the USA yesterday and 412 deaths sees CMR down to 3.675% and active cases at 50.1% with the raw numbers still rising and closing in on 2M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
India completes 14M and Russia 25M tests;
Asia recorded a new daily high with 65,984 new cases;

Libya (114), El Salvador (361), Algeria (607) and Ethiopia (704) all recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Polyal]

Masks claimable for tax?...LOL Fair bit of laundry there

[Bossxr8]

People lining up trying to get a hold of masks, which despite the governments assurances aren't in as plentiful supply as they are claiming. Lines forming outside chemist warehouse.

Nice way to spread it round even more.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

People lining up trying to get a hold of masks, which despite the governments assurances aren't in as plentiful supply as they are claiming. Lines forming outside chemist warehouse.

Nice way to spread it round even more.

Yes they should have secured up supply first, but, why wait when a percentage can start.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

People lining up trying to get a hold of masks, which despite the governments assurances aren't in as plentiful supply as they are claiming. Lines forming outside chemist warehouse.

Nice way to spread it round even more.

Im surprised that if maccas sell hand sanitizer in the drive through they dont try and profit off selling mcmasks.

[russellw]

We haven't had any graphs for awhile so here we go.

First, the 30 day new case trend among the continents which shows only South America starting to trend down while the rest are all heading upward; North America quite sharply.



The trend for new cases globally is still on an upward trend but it is starting to ease the rate of climb a little:



The global trend for deaths had been improving since it peaked in mid-April but it started to climb again from mid June onward:



Next are the cases and deaths per 100k of adult population for some of the countries we have been watching:





.. and the CMR for those same countries:



Drilling down on some selected Asian countries to look at the trends, these countries are divided into 3 groups based on scale.

This first group of three countries, those with the highest case numbers, are all trending downward with Pakistan dropping sharply:



The middle sized group of six is a bit of a mixed bag with Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Oman still trending upward; Iran relatively flat, while Turkey, Iraq (just) and Qatar are heading downward.



The largest group, those with the smaller case numbers, is also a mix of winners and losers. Kuwait, Singapore and the UAE are all trending upward while the remainder are all trending downward with Nepal showing the steepest rate of decline.



Likewise, Africa is now divided into three groups although this first one only contains South Africa which is still trending steeply upward:



The 2nd graph covers the countries with intermediate case numbers where Egypt (sharply) and Nigeria are both on the downward curve while Algeria, Kenya and Ghana are all trending upward - the latter only slightly.



The third graph looks at those with low case numbers where Morocco and the Ivory Coast are trending downward, Ethiopia and the Sudan are trending upward (the latter only just) and Senegal is fairly flat.

[Tickford.]

A little off topic. Jon Noble, an F1 reporter flew back home after the 3 F1 races and arrived at Heathrow Airport.... to this!





Any wonder the UK is in the position it is!

https://twitter.com/NobleF1/status/1285194987127418881

Gotta love Heathrow's response of "we're sorry for the inconvenience caused by this".

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

A little off topic. Jon Noble, an F1 reporter flew back home after the 3 F1 races and arrived at Heathrow Airport.... to this!

image

image

Any wonder the UK is in the position it is!

https://twitter.com/NobleF1/status/1285194987127418881

Gotta love Heathrow's response of "we're sorry for the inconvenience caused by this".

While there is a heck load of people there (which brings its own challenges), at least the vast majority of them appear to be wearing masks and observing the 1.5m social distance.

Couldn't see that being a regular sight at aussie airports.

[galaxy xr8]

^^^ got to love the first pic above, with the young bloke and his eye placement and the young lass in the slim strap green dress !!!!! in his field of vision....lol..

If he has a missus/girlfriend, try and explain that pic which is now posted world wide, lol.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by galaxy xr8

^^^ got to love the first pic above, with the young bloke and his eye placement and the young lass in the slim strap green dress !!!!! in his field of vision....lol..

If he has a missus/girlfriend, try and explain that pic which is now posted world wide, lol.

maybe the dress was worn back to front

[CoupeKing]

Look at that ugly lighting.

Reminds me of sheep waiting to be slaughtered.

[russellw]

359 new cases for Australia and 3 deaths so CMR drops to 1.014% and active cases rise to 3,858. NSW recorded 13 and the balance were in Victoria except for 1 in Tasmania.

1 new case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.415% and active cases rise to 27.

The UK recorded 445 new cases and 110 deaths yesterday so the CMR rises to 15.355%.

Just under 63k new cases in the USA yesterday and 545 deaths sees CMR down to 3.631% and active cases at 49.7% with the raw numbers still rising and closing in on 2M. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 15M, this last 1M only taking 4 days;
The USA passes 4M cases;
Africa passes 0.75M cases;

El Salvador (375), Venezuela (443), Ethiopia (704), Kyrgyzstan (1,108), Israel (2,039) and Argentina (5,344) all recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

Only two charts today. The first looks at the rate of case growth by counting the number of days it takes to add each 1M new cases, a period of time that you'd want to see getting longer but instead it is shortening.



The second looks at the same data for deaths and at least this one is a bit flatter...

[Bossxr8]

Andrews has completely screwed the pooch in Vic. Nearly 500 cases today, and now it's spreading all over the state.

Get ready for stage 4.

[Franco Cozzo]

Bonanza!

484 new cases - masks at the ready ladies, gentleman and blue haired spaceships for 11:59PM tonight

[LG17]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Andrews has completely screwed the pooch in Vic. Nearly 500 cases today, and now it's spreading all over the state.

Get ready for stage 4.

Reading the news reports I would say it's the selfish, stupid people who have done the screwing...

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Andrews has completely screwed the pooch in Vic. Nearly 500 cases today, and now it's spreading all over the state.

Get ready for stage 4.

Yep, doggo is at the vet for emergency surgery

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Andrews has completely screwed the pooch in Vic. Nearly 500 cases today, and now it's spreading all over the state.

Get ready for stage 4.

Not quite sure how your premier is at fault for this................

"Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said from the 3,810 cases between July 7 to July 21, 3,400 cases did not isolate when they first felt sick and when they went to get a test."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...ost-1191270732

[roKWiz]

Whatever happened to all the fly in isolation at Christmas Island, it all seemed to go wrong from then.
If they had stuck to the original plan, no one would have been shipped off to Hotel quarantine in Victoria and other states in the first place.
If you were dumb enough to not come back to Oz as first requested, that's where you should have ended up for at least 40 days.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Whatever happened to all the fly in isolation at Christmas Island, it all seemed to go wrong from then.
If they had stuck to the original plan, no one would have been shipped off to Hotel quarantine in Victoria and other states in the first place.
If you were dumb enough to not come back to Oz as first requested, that's where you should have ended up for at least 40 days.

100% We are an island nation and we still stuffed it

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by LG17

Reading the news reports I would say it's the selfish, stupid people who have done the screwing...

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Not quite sure how your premier is at fault for this................

"Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said from the 3,810 cases between July 7 to July 21, 3,400 cases did not isolate when they first felt sick and when they went to get a test."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...ost-1191270732

Did you miss the part about where Andrews refused ADF for the hotel security, and went with untrained security being paid cash in hand? They are saying nearly every case since can be traced back to that screw up.

So yes, it all comes back on him.

[Gas Wagon AUII]

Originally Posted by Polyal

100% We are an island nation and we still stuffed it

Melb is about to go into prison mode.
Let's play H A R D ! as Tom Gleeson would say.
Chairman Dan - (Tobin Bros. called; they want their gaunt-shouldered undertaker back) will deliver along with his usual "white noise" a different message tomorrow - Sun.
| Lock-down and toss the key |

roKWiz, Polyal : I totally agree.
Authorities in Aust - gifted with the biggest moat on the planet - have blown it.
The only true quarantine is - 40 days min with geographical separation.
As in Point Nepean Quarantine Station, Mornington Peninsular Vic. - which had ideal facilities , functioned very well for over 100 yrs of operation, then the govt let it go into disrepair in the 1950's. Never replacing it, they now hoax us with pseudo hotel "quarantine" ! The fattest lie so far. Back in FEB Wuhan flights were re-directed to proper quarantine in the 3,500 room new-ish worker's village at Howard Springs, 20 min from Darwin airport. Tick.
Who was the genius that suggested "Oh, we can do it using hotels right in the heart of major cities" pfffft.. Andrews is so good at putting blame onto us dumb plebs, remonstrating like an angry primary school teacher, it sets up a culture where a minority will inevitably rebel. His answer to that is FINE them - what good is a fine after the damage is done. Australians respond better to carrots than sticks. Meanwhile we still, are yet to prepare a proper quarantine facility in Vic. Perth used Rottnest Island - tick.
Even if we achieve elimination, every major international gateway will need access to a proper, genuine, geographically separate, quarantine station.
anhoos I'm off to Bunnings 1st thing - in case they ban that as well.

[russellw]

Counting the figures released (so far) today, here is the graph for Australia since the pandemic began here back in March.



We've not quite reached the peak for cases nationally but we're also now very far from it and all the good work done over the period between early April and mid June has been undone.

The chart below shows that the current Victorian daily case rates are way above the NSW Ruby Princess peak of 212 recorded on March 28th.



Victoria now has almost 50 active cases per 100k of population whereas the National average is only 16 and that includes Victoria! No; at 50, it's not in the same league as the USA (576) or French Guiana (785) which the have worst active case rates but it's a lot higher than some.

[russellw]

With over 1,000 fines issued in Victoria since the 'tightened' Stage 3 restrictions came into play, I think the evidence that people can't be relied on to do the right thing is self evident.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by russellw

With over 1,000 fines issued in Victoria since the 'tightened' Stage 3 restrictions came into play, I think the evidence that people can't be relied on to do the right thing is self evident.

Was about to post saying that with attitudes like the below, it's no wonder the authorities are having trouble keeping things under control once a hot spot appears.

I just don't get it....

More than 200 people supposed to be under self-quarantine in Queensland have vanished, with most suspected of giving false contact details at the border.

Just another example of how today's society doesn't respect authority.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Was about to post saying that with attitudes like the below, it's no wonder the authorities are having trouble keeping things under control once a hot spot appears.

I just don't get it....

More than 200 people supposed to be under self-quarantine in Queensland have vanished, with most suspected of giving false contact details at the border.

Just another example of how today's society doesn't respect authority.

It doesnt surprise me at all. The lack of respect for authority and attitude I believe has been adopted from the same attitude the protesters had weeks back.

[prydey]

Russ, do you have a graph showing the fatality trend from the start? I believe the fatalities normally follow about 4-6 weeks behind the infection rate. Probably too early to tell if the deaths will follow the same initial trend.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by prydey

Russ, do you have a graph showing the fatality trend from the start? I believe the fatalities normally follow about 4-6 weeks behind the infection rate. Probably too early to tell if the deaths will follow the same initial trend.

Globally or for Australia?

[russellw]

Originally Posted by prydey

Russ, do you have a graph showing the fatality trend from the start? I believe the fatalities normally follow about 4-6 weeks behind the infection rate. Probably too early to tell if the deaths will follow the same initial trend.

Not sure if this really shows what we are trying to see. It's the logarithmic case and mortality trends and 5 day moving average. You can see the case and mortality spikes being roughly mirrored with an approximately two-week shift in the spikes.

[Jack91]

Me and the apprentice had to go and buy face masks last minute to enter a jobsite yesterday. Luckily there was a box left at the local chemist.
However, we both have beards and they didnt fit or stay on at all. And at $50 for 50 I wasnt impressed. On the side of the box, printed very clearly, 'made in wuhan, China'.
Might as well have said 'f you'